May 24, 2010

What are the odds?

After being in a tournament for about 2 hours and being somewhat low on chips I'm dealt Ah/As. I make a sizeable raise from the big blind with several limpers in the hand, and get 2 calls. I make another bet about half the pot after the flop comes 10h, 2h, 7h. A guy goes all in behind me. I take a few moments to weigh the options and make the call. I have the guy covered by about 2,000 chips anyway. I'm up against a flush (Jh, 3h) that I can't figure out how the guy called the preflop raise, but whatever. I need another heart or the board to pair and an A to fall, but don't get it as the last 2 cards are complete blanks.

Somehow the guy tries to make a comment about my play being stupid. 2 things are wrong with this: 1) He won money from my play, he shouldn't complain or be insulting about it; 2) He called a large preflop raise with Jh/3h. That's stupid in and of itself. I tell him both things and get no response for the short time I'm left at the table.

The very next hand I get dealt Ad/Ah. I go all in with my remaining 2,000 chips. I get a call from 1 person who has As/Jd. The flop comes Ks, 10d, Qh. I'm drawing dead to a chop at this point. But no J falls and I go out from around 14,000 chips in 2 hands with pocket Aces.

What are the odds of being dealt pocket Aces twice in a row? What are the odds that you lose both of them also? If luck was balanced, I'm betting I should probably buy a lottery ticket for the swing back to good luck at this point.

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